Dabas, R. S. and Sharma, Kavita and Das, Rupesh M. and Pillai, K. G. M. and Chopra, Parvati and Sethi, N. K. (2008) A Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using a Modified Precursor Method. Solar Physics , 250 (1). pp. 171-181. ISSN 1573-093X

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Abstract

Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Copyright for this article belongs to M/S Springer Netherlands.
Subjects:	Astronomy & Astrophysics
Divisions:	UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User:	Ms Neetu Chandra
Date Deposited:	26 Dec 2012 09:43
Last Modified:	26 Dec 2012 09:43
URI:	http://npl.csircentral.net/id/eprint/926

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